Investment, overcapacity & collapse


1. Sell stocks of companies that announce huge acquisitions, that overdiversify, or that spend a fortune on a lavish new headquarters.
2. Avoid stocks where management picks fights with analysts (or, by extension, hedge funds). See Overstock.com in 2005; Netflix in 2010.
3. Watch out when executives start selling a lot of stock — regardless of plausible-sounding excuses. Top execs in homebuilders, mortgage underwriters and Wall Street dumped billions before the 2008 crash.
4. “Run a mile” from all stocks in an industry going through a huge investment boom: Massive overcapacity and consequent collapse is inevitable.
5. Steer clear of investing in manufacturing companies. Their industries are usually plagued with extreme cycles of boom and bust, overcapacity and slumps.
6. Pay little attention to economists or market gurus.
7. Mistrust all mathematical trading formulas as well — they invariably fail just when you most need them to work.
8. Look for companies where the insiders are buying lots of stock.
9. Look for companies generating a lot of cash — a great sign of sustained outperformance.
10. Look for companies which have monopolies (or near monopolies), and those which manage to take out their main competitors.
11. Remember you are buying businesses, not just stocks. Pay close attention to the quality of the business, and especially the quality of the management.
12. Look for companies which have earned the trust of consumers, and which have very strong brand names.
Read More

Good lessons from a good teacher


PTJ is not only a successful hedge fund manager and philanthropist, but also very original and clear thinker. Here are some of his best market-related insights:
1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.
2. I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.
3. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?
PS Go to the link there is more from PTJ, i believe he has one very good insight, we try to explain everything and spend time figuring out too much.
Read More

Mude


Mude

Sente-se em outra cadeira, no outro lado da mesa. Mais tarde, mude de mesa.
Quando sair, procure andar pelo outro lado da rua. Depois, mude de caminho, ande por outras ruas, calmamente, observando com atenção os lugares por onde você passa.
Tome outros ônibus.


Mude por uns tempos o estilo das roupas. Dê os seus sapatos velhos. Procure andar descalço alguns dias. Tire uma tarde inteira para passear livremente na praia, ou no parque, e ouvir o canto dos passarinhos.
Veja o mundo de outras perspectivas.


Abra e feche as gavetas e portas com a mão esquerda. Durma no outro lado da cama… Depois, procure dormir em outras camas. Assista a outros programas de tv, compre outros jornais… leia outros livros.
Viva outros romances.


Não faça do hábito um estilo de vida. Ame a novidade. Durma mais tarde. Durma mais cedo.
Aprenda uma palavra nova por dia numa outra língua.
Corrija a postura.


Coma um pouco menos, escolha comidas diferentes, novos temperos, novas cores, novas delícias.
Tente o novo todo dia. O novo lado, o novo método, o novo sabor, o novo jeito, o novo prazer, o novo amor.


A nova vida. Tente. Busque novos amigos. Tente novos amores. Faça novas relações.
Almoce em outros locais, vá a outros restaurantes, tome outro tipo de bebida, compre pão em outra padaria.
Almoce mais cedo, jante mais tarde ou vice-versa.


Escolha outro mercado… outra marca de sabonete, outro creme dental… Tome banho em novos horários.
Use canetas de outras cores. Vá passear em outros lugares.
Ame muito, cada vez mais, de modos diferentes.


Troque de bolsa, de carteira, de malas, troque de carro, compre novos óculos, escreva outras poesias.
Jogue os velhos relógios, quebre delicadamente esses horrorosos despertadores.
Abra conta em outro banco. Vá a outros cinemas, outros cabeleireiros, outros teatros, visite novos museus.
Mude.


Lembre-se de que a Vida é uma só. E pense seriamente em arrumar um outro emprego, uma nova ocupação, um trabalho mais light, mais prazeroso, mais digno, mais humano.
Se você não encontrar razões para ser livre, invente-as. Seja criativo.


E aproveite para fazer uma viagem despretensiosa, longa, se possível sem destino. Experimente coisas novas. Troque novamente. Mude, de novo.
Experimente outra vez.

Você certamente conhecerá coisas melhores e coisas piores do que as já conhecidas, mas não é isso o que importa. O mais importante é a mudança, o movimento, o dinamismo, a energia. Só o que está morto não muda !

Repito por pura alegria de viver: a salvação é pelo risco, sem o qual a vida não
vale a pena!

Clarice Lispector
Read More

What makes a Company strong?

What makes a company strong is not the product or the service. It's the position they own in the mind.

The strength of Hertz is in its leadership position, not the quality of it's rent-a-car service. It's easier to stay on top than to get there.

Can you name a company that has overturned a leader? Crest did it in toothpaste, thanks to the American Dental Association's seal of approval. Budweiser did it in beer and Marlboro did it in cigarettes. But it rarely happens.

A survey of 25 leading brands from the year 1923 proves this point. Today, 20 of those brands are still in first place.Four are in second place and one is in fifth place.

Even changes in rank don't happen very often. If marketing were a horse race, it would be deadly dull affair. In the 43 years since World War II, there has been only one change in position in the top three U.S. automobile companies.

From Bottom up Marketing, Al Ries & Jack Trout 1990
Read More

Bigger beats better most of the time


Truly durable competitive advantages arise from the intersection of supply and demand advantages, from the linkages of economies of scale with customer captivity.
Competitive advantages based on economies of scale are in a class by themselves. They tend to be far longer lived than the other types and therefore more valuable. The best course is to establish dominance in a local market and then expand outward from it. Economies of scale, especially in local markets, are the key to creating sustainable competitive advantages.
The appropriate strategy is to identify niche markets, understanding that not all niches are equally attractive. Ideally, it will also be readily extendable at the edges. The key is to “think local"

 Source: Bruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn, “Competition Demystified”    
Read More

Sound business principles


Oaktree is run for the benefit of its clients and their constituencies as well as for its owners and employees. Profit without performance, bigness for its own sake and prosperity through cost cutting are all explicitly rejected. Our earnings should grow if we achieve excellence in investing . . . but only then. 
Read More

3 rules to follow

Earn all you can, give all you can, save all you can
― John Wesley
Read More
Subscrever: Mensagens (Atom)