The opinion you have of yourself is very very important. Stay clean.

terça-feira, novembro 25, 2014 David Barradas 3 Comments

Avoid the Second MIstake

by James Clear | Read this article on JamesClear.com
 
So often, we make the mistake of believing that sticking to good habits is an all-or-nothing game. (I say “we” because I’ve been there before as well.)
·         We assume that if we slip up on our diet, then we have ruined the whole thing.
·         We act like missing one day of writing means we simply weren’t meant to be a writer.
·         We use our lack of motivation to work out as evidence that we don’t have the willpower to make change happen.
These beliefs are incorrect. Habits are behaviors that we repeat consistently. However, they are not behaviors that we repeat perfectly. This small idea—that consistency does not require perfection—is important.

When it comes to building good habits and breaking bad habits, individual mistakes do not matter in the long-run. Instead, it is the second mistake that is far more important. Let’s talk about why this is true.

I don't agree with this idea, i believe the What the hell effect is more powerful. When you are on diet and you make the first mistake and the day is lost you start a binge because it's not a diet day anymore, so What the hell. Most people are like me if you don't do the first mystake you stick 100% to the routine but if you do .........it's a mess.
Don't do the first mistake. Do everything in your power. All or nothing it's the realty here. There is even a more powerfull effect that Dan Ariely mention in his books. If you wear a fake luxury item you feel you are cheating. And when you have the opportunity to cheat you do it more than people that didn't wear fake luxury items. If you have the impression that you are a cheater you tend to become one.
The opinion you have of yourself is very very important. Stay clean.
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Best predictor of tomorrow winners is today's winners!

quinta-feira, novembro 20, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

Always the same names at the top


New teams that make the UEFA top 10 that were absent in the top 10 last year.

the trend is down from almost 4 in 1961 to just 1 now.

With Globalization the power of the winners is perpetuated because they make more money, they invest more & because of that they tend to win again.

The phrase past performance is not an indicator of future performance is wrong big time!




























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There are no shortcuts to any place worth going - Beverly Sills

terça-feira, novembro 18, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

You become what you think about all day long.
― Ralph Waldo Emerson

Everything in moderation, including moderation
  ---  Julia Child

A paper from Lee Biggerstaff at Miami University, David C. Cicero at the University of Alabama, and Andy Puckett at the University of Tennessee (which we were first alerted to by Bloomberg's Matt Levine) published in August looks at the relationship between CEOs that play lots of golf and the performance of those CEOs' companies. 
The findings are not in favor of the golfers. ....

Here are some of the highlights of the paper's findings:
  • Companies with CEOs in the top quartile of golf play (22 rounds or more per year) have lower operating performance and firm values.
  • Some CEOs in the database played more than 100 rounds in a year! (There are 365 days in a year.)
  • "While some golf rounds may serve a valid business purpose, it is unlikely that the amount of golf played by the most frequent golfers is necessary for a CEO to support her firm."
  • CEOs play more golf the longer they are the CEO.
  • The number of golf rounds a CEO plays are negatively correlated with changes in firm profitability. 
  • Overall, higher golf play is associated with a higher probability of CEO turnover.
  • One CEO played 146 rounds of golf in a year.
Among the other choice bits of info from the report include that Jimmy Cayne, the former CEO of Bear Stearns spent 10 of 21 working days away from the office playing golf or bridge in July 2007, the same month that two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-golf-rounds-indicate-poor-performance-2014-11


Nothing new here to be the best you have to be obsessed, No normal people have outstanding results. People who advise that you should work less are not giving a good advice. Work is one of the biggest weapons a person might have. 


More about the same:



"Genius is 1% talent and 99% percent hard work..."
— Albert Einstein


Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work."
— Stephen King
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working hard

terça-feira, novembro 18, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments


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Some ideas for the weekend

sexta-feira, novembro 14, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

1.Great companies have secrets: specific reasons for success that other people don’t see

Peter Thiel

2.Action cures fear." 
— David J. Schwartz (Magic of Thinking Big)

3.In philosophy, politics, and business, too, arguing over process has become a way to endlessly defer making concrete plans for a better future

Peter Thiel

4. “If I get married, I want to be very married.” 
― Audrey Hepburn

5.Tolstoy opens Anna Karenina by observing: “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in his own way” Business is the opposite. All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition”

Peter Thiel, Zero to One Chapter 3

6.“The minute you choose to do what you really want to do, it's a different kind of life.” 
― R. Buckminster Fuller

7.Somebody should tell us, right at the start of our lives, that we are dying. Then we might live life to the limit, every minute of every day. Do it! I say. Whatever you want to do, do it now! There are only so many tomorrows.”
― Pope Paul VI

8.A friendship founded on business is better than a business founded on friendship.
John D. Rockefeller
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Don't take notes, it ruins your memory

quinta-feira, novembro 13, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments


One of the keys to happiness is a bad memory
― Rita Mae Brown



A recent study from Michelle Eskritt and Sierra Ma at Mount St. Vincent University—published in the journal Memory & Cognition—suggests that when you take notes, your brain can intentionally forget because it knows that you've written the information down and stored it elsewhere. During the study, participants were asked to play the memory game Concentration over and over. The catch was that one group was allowed to take notes during the game. Halfway through the game, however, that same group got their notes taken away. When it was all done, the group that was not allowed to use notes performed significantly better.




Until today I used to take notes with the idea that one day in the distant future i am going to need them. It is never the case!

from now on i am going to take my Moleskin just for show off. No more notes. It ruins my memory!

However after reading the first quote i prefer to have a lousy memory, in fact when i recall the past i just remember good things! When i recall the Avalanche/accident in Mont Blanc where i broke my leg & other minor things I just remember the good things about the trip and the people who visit me in the hospital.

Nothing like a bad (selective)  memory!








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I wasn't expecting this!

quarta-feira, novembro 12, 2014 David Barradas 1 Comments

“We sell quality stuff at the best possible price. If you treat consumers with respect and treat employees with respect, good things are going to happen to you” – CEO of Costco


According to Glassdoor Costco’s cashiers get paid $15.80/hour and supervisors get paid $22.94/hour.  This compares to Walmart’s cashiers at $8.89/hour and department managers at $12.00/hour. Target’s cashiers receive $8.66/hour and team leaders receive $15.36/hour. Moreover Bloomberg reports 88% of Costco’s employees are on company sponsored health care plans, which is much higher than other retailers. Costco’s higher pay and benefits keep turnover low and increases the quality of service.



Despite paying more for their people, almost double Costco is killing the competition? How is it possible? I have never been in a Costco store but i will try to find out how is it possible that in a commodity business like Supermarkets (Everybody sells the same stuff) the low cost producer doesn't win! And Wal-mart is not winning!


I don't buy the quality of service argument because when i go to a supermarket i don't need a lot of service. I don't care if the cashier ask me if i have their credit card with a smile or not. There is something more to this ......................


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if you build, they will come

quarta-feira, novembro 12, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments



“if you build, they will come.” That’s been a bad assumption for a lot of producers, especially of commodities

Dr. Ed's Blog

That is the problem with the world with automation it's easy to produce more than the world needs and there is excess supply of almost everything.



This is the graph of CRB Commodity Index it's slowly drifting lower. It's not good to be a producer of commodities these days. 



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Why Oil is going down?

segunda-feira, novembro 10, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments




Today from Quatz

China hit a record stretch of deflation. Overcapacity, cheap commodities, and sluggish domestic demand were blamed for official figures showing China’s producer price index fell 2.2% in October from a year earlier, compared with an expected 2% fall—the 32nd consecutive monthly drop. Consumer prices rose 1.6% in October, matching expectations and remaining unchanged from September.

The world is cooling down! Growth is shrinking and the reason is overcapacity & automation.

This is the reason why Brands& Luxury have been going up. The sales price of a Cartier watch has been going up forever. If the cost of putting together the watch is going down Cartier margin is expanding. The market already recognized that. Is there more money in the table? I guess yes because i see deflation in the future. If you have a brand you can survive if you are a commodity producer (price taker) you have a problem.
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why woman love to go to crowded restaurants

segunda-feira, novembro 10, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

From Fortune:

Poor Germany: Why the east will never catch up to the west

The anniversary offers a chance to look back on what German reunification has brought Europe’s most powerful economy and its people. One of the most salient facts about Germany today is how much hasn’t changed in terms of regional disparities in economic development. According to the German Federal Labor Office, unemployment in the former East German state sits at above 9%, while it hovers at 5.6% in the former West German territories, and the discrepancy would be worse were it not for government programs that bring jobs to the region.
If you look at statistics such as per capita income or worker productivity, they also point to the large disparity in economic development between east and west.................
As long as talented and motivated young people in Germany are allowed to freely leave the East for better opportunities in the West, regional differences in economic development will persist.
People flock to where there are opportunities & growth. That is the reason why New York & London are growing faster than any other cities in the world. Big get bigger is a big trend. No one wants to go to an empty restaurant! Nothing brings more success than the appearance of success. When a region or country is left behind only government can change that . To place a big college with many students in a poor region sometimes can change things a bit. Otherwise my advice is . When you are in a working age live in the center and when you are out of work/retired go and live in a poor region. To make money you need to be where people are already making money.
I thought many times to get a work in London or Geneva and have my family in Lisbon that would be the ideal set up! A lot of flying but it would be the best business....

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.
Groucho Marx


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How to be the best, just do a bit more than you did yesterday.

sexta-feira, novembro 07, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments



http://traderfeed.blogspot.pt/2014/11/how-to-become-peak-performance-trader.html



This is so true! During 4 years I just concentrate on improving a bit from one year to the other. Diet,  weight, intervals, technique, cold showers, push up's,  etc...During those 4 years my Cyclist performance really changed for the better.

Now i am on a sabbatical because I have a new baby. But when i am back to serious sport I will do the same. 

Buy a book and take note of everyday progress. Compete with yourself

More about the same

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/12/how-to-be-in-shape-easy.html
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My job is to help people make money with money.

quarta-feira, novembro 05, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

Persistently low interest rates and new rules for banks and money-market funds are complicating the task of managing the almost $2 trillion on corporate balance sheets, setting off a scramble to find new parking places for that cash. 

By Vipal Monga, WSJ



My job is to help people make money with money.

When rates were high and we could get 5 or 6% for the cash part of a portfolio it was easy life. Now it's getting more difficult.

i see 2 possible ideas to do this:

1.Do as Charles Gave from gave Kal says! Exclude everything that is going to die and you get a portfolio by exclusion.

Exclude people that are going to lose from Robotics
Exclude people that have high energy costs & are high energy users
Exclude small vs big (big are winning). 
Buy the center sell the periphery
Buy the big city sell the countryside
Exclude companies in countries that have a competitive disadvantage (High interest, high tax, low productivity, etc...
Exclude commodities vs (Brands are winning)
etc....

2.Make things happen! . There is no top line growth in the world so you have to create growth.

use your cash to Buy your competitor
Sell units/business that you are not nº1 or nº2
Buy companies that have a bloated cost base and cut costs like crazy (If the PE of the market is 20 if you cut 1 b of fixed costs the market cap will increase by 20x that amount!)



what is not going to work? Sit and watch your money grow without doing anything.
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Yes Mr Gross you are right !

terça-feira, novembro 04, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments

The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, Grant’s deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity.
-William H. Gross
https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook



Lack of demand is the problem in the world. Excess capacity is a plague! The world need this

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/pay-people-for-being-alive.html
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With Automation we don't need to produce in CHINA

terça-feira, novembro 04, 2014 David Barradas 0 Comments


From FT, Sarah Gordon, Business Editor


The trend is not limited to the eurozone. In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, David Cameron, UK prime minister, highlighted businesses ranging from Symingtons, the food producer, and EE, the mobile phone operator, as having reshored some of their operations to the UK. EE, which owns Orange and T-Mobile, announced plans this year to move call-centre activities back to the UK from overseas locations including the Philippines...................

“In some areas of manufacturing technological changes mean you don’t need so many people to produce things,” said Mr Hawksworth. “This means you create fewer more highly skilled jobs.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6aaaf0a4-610e-11e4-894b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3I5W9kAfm


With automation you can locate the factory near the market you want to serve. There is no point producing in China to sell in Europe or USA. It's riskier & shipment is costly. 

More on the same subject:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/01/no-convergence-at-all.html





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