Put the Marketing people in charge

quarta-feira, outubro 30, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

Chinese firms are robotizing their production lines in order to compete head-on with rivals on the basis of quality. The automation czar of Great Wall Motors, China’s biggest pickup truck maker, recently told us that a program to automate welding and spray painting for its new models was not a cost cutting exercise, but rather an effort to close the quality gap between its vehicles and those produced by the likes of Toyota and General Motors in China.

Yuchan Li, Gave Kal Research

If China starts competing on quality we (Europe&US) will have big problems because they still have  a big the cost advantage & if the quality perception is the same.....

What to do? Build a brand! Despite Lexus is as good as Mercedes or BMW no one in their right mind will buy a Lexus at similar prices. Why? because there is a perception that Mercedes or BMW are much better.

What is the name of that perception? it's a position that only Brands possess. So I strongly advice companies to hire a good marketing guy and put him/she in charge.

No Brand = No profit






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Something Unique.....

segunda-feira, outubro 28, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

Any company whose earnings are growing consistently – or more important, are likely to grow consistently – has something unique about it. The competition can read these earnings records too, and fat earnings records are an invitation to come in and steal the cream. So a company that has something unique about it has something the competition cannot latch onto right away. Whatever it is that is unique is a glass wall around those profit margins.
The Money Game, Adam Smith

Well the best way to make money is to have no competition. When you have competition you can't make serious money.  How to have barriers to entry or something Unique?

1.To be big. To be the nº1 in an Industry is a very good position to be in. Most clients want to know who sells more before they buy. Consolidate, buy your competitor if you can.

2.To have some cost advantage that the others don't have! Location, resources, it costs a lot to change providers.

3.To have a Brand. People trust your Brand and are willing to pay 5 for something that the competition sells for 2!

4.To have a regulation that prevents the entry of new players






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Team sports are the best to get a job!

segunda-feira, outubro 28, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

How does participation in different types of sport affect the earnings and employment of the working-age population? 

Are these effects for the different types of sports heterogeneous with respect to genders and age?

These 2 Questions are answered in the following paper

http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1325.pdf

Conclusion:

.... the results indicate large positive associations of sports participation with earnings, which are largest for fitness and outdoor sports. Furthermore, there is a negative relation with unemployment, particularly for males, which goes together with higher employment rates for younger males and higher retirement rates for older males. Comparing the different sports against each other shows that participation in team sports is more associated with increased employability (but that this varies by age and gender) and that fitness and outdoor activities have higher associations with income.


This doesn't surprise me at all, why it's easier to get a job if you play team sports?

1.You are used to have a role in the team. You do your part, you wait for your time to act. This is Teamwork. (To play in an Orchestra is the same)
2.You are used to lose and next week it's another game! It is never the end...There is always the next game.
3.In a team there is a boss, in companies is the same
4.You make a lot's of friends (networking)
5.If you do serious sports you are used to get the best of your day, you study, you attend school and you train. People who do sports do more!
6.You get a course in Psychology while playing games.You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation. Plato.
7.You understand the power of effort and hard training  In sports you figure out that the person who works more usually wins.
8.You are healthier,  and companies like to hire healthy people.





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Best Graph Ever

segunda-feira, outubro 28, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

Conclusion: People love to conform/to belong/to copy/ to follow

Why on earth people in almost all the states in America in 1961 choose the name David and 4 years later in 1965 everybody chooses Michael? And why most of the western states choose the same name every year!

Take from this: It's easier to sell to a prospect in the places where you already do business than to open a new front.

http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-popular-boys-names-since-1960-in-1-spectacular-gif-2013-10

Boys Names Maps

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It's better to live alongside rich people !

sexta-feira, outubro 25, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

If a country grows there is a natural tendency for income polarization. The Owners of the Companies & the knowledge workers make substantial more money than people that have standardized jobs (Jobs that are thousands of people who do the same thing).


The Kuznet's Curve has the same idea with the following rational (From Wikipedia)

The Kuznets curve implies that as a nation undergoes industrialization – and especially the mechanization of agriculture – the center of the nation’s economy will shift to the cities. As capitalism causes a significant rural-urban inequality gap (the owners of firms would be profiting, while labourers from lagging industries and agriculture production would be losing income), rural populations are expected to decrease as urban populations increase, due to people migrating to cities in search of income. Inequality is then expected to decrease when a certain level of average income is reached and the processes of industrialization – democratization and the rise of the welfare state – allow for the trickle-down of the benefits from rapid growth, and increase the per capita income. This was Kuznets’ belief; that inequality would follow an inverted “U” shape as it rises and then falls again with the increase of income per capita.


I don't agree with the idea that as inequality decreases at all. My belief is this

For the whole group to get better some of the group will become much better. This is what i see. Every country that tried to promote egalitarian politics everybody get's worse in the end. Equal but hungry!



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Are you easily Replaceable ?

terça-feira, outubro 22, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

  • These days i think with automation on the rise the only people that are difficult to be replaced are the sellers/client people that have the relationships. Everybody on the production line are easily replaced by a colleague or a machine.

    From Dilbert.com October 18, 1993
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Lot's of experience is useless!

domingo, outubro 20, 2013 David Barradas 1 Comments

To improve you have to exit your comfort zone!

In field after field, when it comes to centrally important skills—stockbrokers recommending stocks, parole officers predicting recidivism, college admissions officials judging applicants—people with lots of experience were no better at their jobs than those with less experience.

From Geoff Colvin, Talented is Overrated

What? well in this book the author claims 3 things, 1 The notion that you have to have ‘natural talent’ to excel at something is a myth. 2. Even if you practice many hours at something you improve a bit first but after an initial jump you reach a plateau and experience serves you nothing.3. if you want to get better you have to engage in deliberate practice (in my words Hard Training, not so pleasant ).

To improve at something, and anyone can improve if he/she want, it's Hard Work, you have to exit your comfort zone. You have to experiment, you have to do every week something that you have never done before. 

In my bike training i have to do a series at 185 bpm,  to change my diet radically, to lose serious weight, try a new drink,  drink only water in training, etc... i have exit the usual to improve. That is the key to move forward. To do over & over the same things doesn't get you very far.

Exception: In sales i do believe that someone with 10,000 client meetings is really better than someone with 100 client meetings. In Sales you do get better with the number of interactions because each meeting is different.

http://www.amazon.com/Talent-Overrated-World-Class-Performers-EverybodyElse/dp/1591842948
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Protect your Brain

sábado, outubro 19, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

You also need to remove from your life the day-to-day problems that absorb most people for meaningful parts of their day. “You’ll see I wear only gray or blue suits,” (Obama) said. “I’m trying to pare down decisions. I don’t want to make decisions about what I’m eating or wearing. Because I have too many other decisions to make.” He mentioned research that shows the simple act of making decisions degrades one’s ability to make further decisions. It’s why shopping is so exhausting. “You need to focus your decision-making energy. You need to routinize yourself. You can’t be going through the day distracted by trivia.”

Michael Lewis’ profile of President Obama


i am a big fan of routines. I eat almost the same food every day, same hour to wake up and the same training schedule  every week. All my shirts are white from Brooke Brothers and all my suits are dark grey. I don't make many decisions every day.I like this system.
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It doesn't cost to try!

sexta-feira, outubro 18, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

From VF 
Following extensive research (several trips to the nearest bodega, we assume), Chinese researchers have concluded that Sprite is the single-best beverage to alleviate hangovers. Sprite increases “the activity of ALDH,” a chemical compound that occurs once a different, harmful chemical compound, acetaldehyde, metabolizes. In other words—in words a hungover person can understand—there’s something about the chemistry of Sprite that turns bad leftover alcohol into harmless leftover alcohol.



Because of the bike i tend to avoid big drinking sprees but once in a while i like to drink wine more than i should. I will certainly try the SPRITE solution. It's cheap and the downside is low.

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Skyroad

sexta-feira, outubro 18, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

I did finish my second Skyroad in 98th place with 6h 12 minutes among 500 finishers.

 I started strongly, at km 30 when i had a flat tyre i was in the 2nd group with some 30 guys in front of me. My heart rate at the time was around 165 bpm. 

I lost some 11 minutes to fix the tyre and was surpassed by some 200 guys! After that i lost my group and the possibility of racing behind someone else wheel. I raced alone until km 95 where i found my friend Rodrigo Ribeiro da Cunha. We rode together until the last mountain where i could not keep up with him.

I finish completely empty without food or water.


Last year in a diferent course i did 43th place with 5h 03.

Comparing 2012 vs 2013 the stats are

climbing 2900 mts in 2012 vs 3500 mts this year
160km last year vs 168 km this year
5h03 vs 6h12
max 20 minutes Watts 288 vs 305 this year
average watts 219 both years
average Heart rate 154 both years
calories burned 4800 this year
cadence 79 last year vs 91 this year

and of course last year i did the race in the peloton and this year i was alone trying to make up for the lost time with the flat tyre.





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Skyroad

quinta-feira, outubro 10, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

Saturday i will do the Skyroad bike race. 168k and 4100 meter of climbing! Last year i did an average of 30 km/h. This year i am 5kg overweight and i want to do the same result! i will surfer badly on the saddle!

Last year i finished 50th with some 700 cyclists. this year i have seen 1000 on the list!




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why there is almost no cancer in China ?

quinta-feira, outubro 10, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

I just read a Book called The China Study by Dr.Colin Campbell Phd.

The idea behind the book is why there is almost no cancer in China. They die, but not from Cancer. After some investigation funded by Oxford University he claims that the prevalence of all types of cancer is highest in the regions where people eat a bigger % of calories from Animal fat (Meat, Fish& Diary).

This is correlation, is not causation.

However in the lab, Dr.Campbell induced mice with cancer/tumor and after restricted the protein intake  the cancer almost disappeared in the mice with low protein diet!

well there is something here! 

I am already almost Veggan because of the Bike races. There is a Veggan avantage in Ultra endurance races! This helps my decision. Not zero meat but i just eat meat time to time.


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sell a bit first to sell more later technique

quinta-feira, outubro 10, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

A foot in the door

Psychologists Robert Cialdini and David Schroeder (1976) tested the foot-in-the-door concept in an experiment with solicitors for contributions to the American Cancer Society. They reasoned that if they could get people to contribute anything, they might get them to contribute more. Thus, they had two teams of solicitors (each team consisting of a male and female college student) use a standard request ("I'm collecting money for the American Cancer Society. Would you be willing to help by giving a donation?"). Another two teams used the same approach, but added the phrase "Even a penny will help" at the end. Forty-two people were canvassed with each approach. Which approach was more effective? With the standard approach, 12 out of 42 people donated, while with the "Even a penny will help" approach, the teams received 21 contributions out of 42 tries. Clearly, the small-favor approach worked to increase contributions. But if the contributions were smaller (since even pennies were acceptable), then it still might not be as effective as the regular pitch. The standard approach earned a total of $18.55, while the penny approach earned a total of $30.34.



This approach to sell a bit first to sell more later it's a classical and the idea behind is consistency. People love to be consistent if they had done something in the past they are more inclined to repeat it in the future in a bigger scale. So on a business perspective we should get clients to buy a bit or to try our product and then.... It's easier to sell more to a current customer than to convert a new costumer.
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No Growth?

quarta-feira, outubro 09, 2013 David Barradas 1 Comments

From FT

The world faces years of sluggish growth unless leading economies undertake difficult economic reforms, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday in a downbeat World Economic Outlook.
Launching its twice-yearly forecasts amid rising tensions over the US government shutdown, the fund trimmed its predictions of global expansion for 2013 and 2014 with all of the downgrade stemming from weaker prospects in emerging economies.
The message from the IMF to finance ministers and central bankers ahead of this week’s autumn meeting was that they must raise their game if the world economy is to return to the 4 per cent plus growth rates it enjoyed before the crisis.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26a0c9d0-2ff3-11e3-9eec-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2h7kU44tI

Like the IMF i see no growth in the world for the simple reason that there is too much of everything. There is excess supply of almost every product i can think of. If this is the case why build a new factory or a new plant. Current factories are working at 50% why build another one? 
There is not enough demand in the world!
If credit could expand even more, we can always create demand but almost every part of the world is already overleveraged.

I see low growth & deflation. QE is not going to stop soon.

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Don't try to win fast and you win!

terça-feira, outubro 08, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some
wisdom in the folk saying: 'It's the strong swimmers who drown.'" 
- Charlie Munger

This is true not only on the investment side. When i used to play tennis (before broking my leg climbing Mont Blanc) usually i didn't try to win the point and just throw the ball back. Many times the other guy just put the ball out by himself!  I was able to win against much better players just staying in the game!

In my job (I help people make money with money) we have 2 investment funds that have a simple rule/philosophy and are 2 of the best in Europe. How can this be possible? We don't go for home runs.

Don't try to win fast and you win!

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If labor is a cost for the firm it makes sense to ......

sexta-feira, outubro 04, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments

From WSJ

Merck & Co. said it plans to slash its 81,000-strong workforce by 20% over the next two years, a stark show of the diminishing research-and-development capabilities of some of America's biggest health companies. 


Well not only the struggling companies fire people, everybody is racing to more with less. If labor is a cost it makes sense to trim it as much as you can. Companies all over the world are replacing workers with machines, outsourcing and doing everything they can to be less dependent on their workers.

I see the power to make money working at a job strongly diminishing. It's easier to make money being an investor than to be an employee!

This story also reflects the fact that Merck has been mediocre inventing new drugs. That has a price and they are paying it big time. The only companies that are still wiring are companies that have something that their clients love. Amazon, Google, etc.... You need to have something for the clients in order to survive.



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If you want to get ahead in life marry with someone who also wants to get ahead

quarta-feira, outubro 02, 2013 David Barradas 0 Comments


I have seen this graph (below) in The Atlantic. What we see is that the only group that raised their income since the 70's are the couples that both work.
Why is this? Why the single Dad & the single mom didn't improve?Why the married couples where only one of them works didn't improve at all?

I have 2 explanations:

1.Only the top tier of the educated/knowledge improved in the last 30 years. The Globalization/Automation is killing the middle class. Jobs are being replaced by machines and some middle class jobs were transferred to third world. I guess most of the top tier American can and do live together and both work.
2.If both parties in a household work they can accept/accommodate the fact the other need to work overtime, has to travel, to put some sleepless nights, etc... When you are married with someone that doesn't work and expects you at home for dinner, usually they don't compromise and they want you home early. People that don't work want they husband/wife to have a balanced life. When you have a balanced life you go nowhere!
If you want to get ahead in life marry someone that also wants to get ahead!  


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Why I don't vote!

terça-feira, outubro 01, 2013 David Barradas 1 Comments

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.
― Benjamin Franklin

This phrase says it all, to take a vote has nothing to do with fairness. In Portugal all the political parties even the ones that claim to shrink the state/cut taxes/cut spending when they get into power they raise taxes and more taxes. We are the country with one of the biggest governments & bureaucracy. We have rules for everything (you can't drive your own car with Havaianas! there is a rule for that!!!!) 2 or 3 million people live directly or indirectly from the state. The state has borrowed and spent money from future generations.

What do do?

I don't vote because i can't make any difference and because there is no party that even considers shrinking the Government and lower the taxes & regulations.

I am not yet the well-armed lamb but i plan to be!

Why do i live in Portugal?

because we have sun, security, it's very cheap & i have a great job (Helping investor's to make money with money)

From the election statistics i can see that more & more people don't vote, i don't see people discussing politics in dinners. It looks like people are anesthetized with shock!
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