Buy stock in the Robot factory!

MY favorite story in Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s fascinating new book, “The Second Machine Age,” is when the Dutch chess grandmaster Jan Hein Donner was asked how he’d prepare for a chess match against a computer, like I.B.M.’s Deep Blue. Donner replied: “I would bring a hammer.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/opinion/sunday/friedman-if-i-had-a-hammer.html?_r=0

I didn't read this new book yet. But i have blogged a lot about these theme. Automation in all areas of our life. What to do? Invest in the factory that is building the machines that are replacing us. I guess Google, Amazon, irobot, etc... would be in the portfolio.

Biggest risk of 2014 is ......

Still Deflation, the GaveKal Price indicator is at -7 the minimum on the scale. It's possible that we see CPI near zero in 2014. I don't see the FED ending QE soon.

Why are we in a deflation trap?

a)Automation & Technology make it cheaper to produce
b)Unemployment is huge
c)Excess capacity everywhere

I agree with this view. Treasury yields will not go trough the roof.

From Gave-Kal research

If kids cut the veggies, they will eat them

I have seen a study that claims exactly that. The idea is if kids have some stake in what has been served they will eat more than if they are just passive. I will need to try this.

My kids don't eat veggies at all. I don't think they will die if they don't eat them and i don't want to bribe or make them sit until they eat their veggies. I am almost vegan. They see what i eat and they have fresh salad everyday at the table. 
A typical meal for me is Soup, big salad with 5 or 6 different types of veggies & Quinoa.

I believe more than lecturing the example in a key motivator. Let's see if it works.

Of course if i serve chips & snacks every meal they will not touch any vegetable soon. 


Not all is lost against Robots !

Why do we have brains?

To control movement!



We have no chance against Robot's & Computers in thinking, calculating, algebra, remembering, organizing etc.... We are better than Robots at complex movements like playing soccer, pouring water into a glass, etc... 

In this movie about How Amazon Warehouse works we can see that all the simple tasks are automated but to pick the book's from the shelf and to fit it into the appropriate box that it's done by a human. 



I guess in the future there are 3 things that man (human) can do, help designing the Robots (Programming, etc....), creative jobs like art &marketing and perform complex movements like (hairdresser, bike repair, massage, sports, etc....). My take on this is that we should be in shape. Do some Pilates, Yoga, step, dancing etc.. all things that can help your coordination & control if you are not into writing code.


Happiness = Health + Freedom

As luck would have it, the good habits that make you healthy and energetic help to make you happy at the same time, so it’s a double win.

Scott Adams

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/read-this-if-you-want-to-be-happy-in-2014/2014/01/02/d96370f0-7192-11e3-9389-09ef9944065e_print.html


I agree 100% with Scott Adams. I think the best investment you can make is to stay healthy. Why? Because when you are healthy and in good shape you fell happy, confident and the people you interact with notice it. In my country the Ministry of Health should be called the Ministry of Sickness because they only care about the sick people. The Ministry of Sports (Doesn't exist) should be the real Health Ministry.

How do you stay Healthy? Health = movement+don't eat to much garbage food

If you move 90% of your Health problems disappear. Just move a bit every day on top of that my experience indicates that if you move depression disappears almost for ever. 

To move is something that you can control, to stay healthy is something that you can control, many things in life are out of our control. This is in our control. So do it and be Happy.

New year resolutions

Well i didn't thought a lot about this because sometimes i feel hopelessly not in charge. The world has changed a bit recently and it's been difficult to navigate due to many things that i write in this blog often. There are few winners and the winner takes all is the current environment. It was always like this but i think this is getting worse with Globalization & Internet. The space i am more in control is in the mountain bike where when i train hard i see results. Competition where there are no referees are a natural place for me. The markets are also a fair competition, even if markets are manipulated there was space to figure them out.

What i hope to do this year is the following:

1.More in tune with the markets. I have been pessimistic and that has prevented me from making more money. With the current environment it's easier to make money in the markets than working. I hope i can make more money to me & to my clients in 2014.

2.I got divorced in 2013 and this year i want to stabilize my new life with my girlfriend and my kids. I need to create new routines and settle a bit. I want to get closer to my friends & family.

3.In sports i am going to take 1 year off. I will train as usual but no crazy diets and no crazy schedules. I will compete but this year i will do it easy. After 4 years at full speed i am going to try a different approach. I will post about my new approach. 

4.I would like to do as Warren Buffet 

I just sit in my office and read all day
Warren Buffet

5.I hope to travel to new places & meet new clients

6. I would like to improve my writing. I want to do a copy course or something like that. My natural language is not English and i would love to improve.



From http://www.graciebarra.com/2012/12/great-holiday-brazilian-jiu-jitsu-activities-for-kids/calvin-hobbes-new-years-resolutions/

Is this a trend?


I took this graph from the excellent site Quartz.com. This illustrates one of the biggest trends i see. People in emerging markets want to buy i-phones & BMW's. When they have money they want to buy the best in the world and the best is in America & some Europe. Of course no trend is so clear that is always in place but slowly year in year out the winners of Globalization & Internet/Information are the best and the biggest. Of course EM stocks are cheap but slowly we are seeing what already happens in music. There are many people in India that love Madonna, Lady Gaga or Bon Jovi the first 3 of the Forbes list. But i don't see many Americans buying the best India music or the best Chinese music. That is why there are only Americans & Europeans in the top of the rankings in music.In Soccer/Football i see the same trend many people from EM love United & Real Madrid or Barcelona. But despite Brazil having the best players in the world Brazilian football is mostly local and i have problems finding information about their competition.
Why do DM developed markets can sell in EM, because they have a brand.